Bitcoin's price waned in the last third of the year

By market value, the first and biggest cryptocurrency in the world has now fallen more than 13% from its April annual highs to the north of the $31,000 mark.

As a result, it has convincingly deviated from both its 21- and 50-Day Moving Averages, which are both in the mid-$28,000 range, and was last trading at little under $27,000.

Statistics this week revealed that, while still high, US inflation is cooling off, which relieves pressure on the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time.

Although it has been planned since mid-March, Bitcoin is still threatening to breach below the lower boundaries of its mid-$26,000s to $31,000ish range.

BTC is also threatening a breakout below a pennant structure that has developed in the previous few weeks, which may be more foreboding.

Technicians anticipate a support test in the $25,200–400 range whenever these crucial support levels finally cave in.

Any long-term negative Bitcoin thesis won't be confirmed until the price of bitcoin drops by another 6% from current levels.

With the backdrop of global factors that, from Bitcoin's standpoint, are strengthening, a slide back towards late-2022 lows around $20,000 still appears incredibly implausible (Bitcoin likes a less hawkish Fed and US bank turmoil).

The bear market is still ongoing, according to longer-term technical analysis, which also shows that Bitcoin is still significantly above its 200-Day Moving Average, above its 2023 uptrend, and that a bullish golden cross occurred three months ago.

Several widely used on-chain indicators that indicate the beginning of a new bull market for Bitcoin are another reason to be bullish.

Getting Over the Bitcoin Bear Market

The "Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear" dashboard from Glassnode keeps track of eight indicators to determine whether Bitcoin is trading above important pricing models, whether network utilization momentum is rising, whether market profitability is returning, and whether the overall USD-denominated Bitcoin wealth is tilted in favor of long-term HODLers.

The Bitcoin market has typically responded favorably when all eight of the indicators are flashing green.

All eight indicators are currently glowing green.

The price of bitcoin is comfortably above both its 200DMA and its realized price.

Many people consider a break above these important levels to be a sign that the near-term price trend is changing for the better.

A few months ago, the 30-Day SMA of new Bitcoin address creation crossed the 365-Day SMA, indicating an increase in the pace of new Bitcoin wallet formation. Historically, this has happened when bull markets first began.

Revenue From Fees Multiple, meanwhile, just saw a positive change.

The number of standard deviations above or below the mean of a data sample is known as the Z-score.

The amount of standard deviations above or below the mean Bitcoin Fee Income over the last two years is what makes up Glassnode's Z-score in this case.

So, the third and fourth indications that indicate if network utilization is once again trending favorably are likewise indicating a bullish move.

The 30-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Realized Profit-Loss Ratio (RPLR) indicator above one is the fifth and sixth market profitability indicators.

This indicates that a larger percentage of profits (valued in USD) than losses are being realized by the Bitcoin market.

This typically means that sellers with unrealized losses have run out of options, and a stronger inflow of demand exists to withstand profit-taking, according to Glassnode.

Thus, this indicator keeps sending a bullish signal.

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ration (aSOPR) indicator for Bitcoin, which measures the amount of realized profit or loss for all coins moved on-chain, is also above one at the 30-day SMA.

In essence, this signifies that the market has made a healthy profit on average during the last 30 days.

Throughout the last eight years of Bitcoin history, the aSOPR's return to above 1 after a protracted period below it has been a great buy signal.

The latter two signs pertain to whether the USD wealth balance has sufficiently swung back in the HODLers' favor to indicate weak-hand selling weariness.

According to Glassnode, the last 90 days have seen an upswing in the Bitcoin Realized HODL Multiple, which is a bullish indication.

The RHODL Multiple transitioning into an uptrend over a 90-day window, according to the crypto analytics company, "indicates that USD-denominated wealth is starting to shift back towards new demand inflows."

The market is able to absorb them, therefore it "indicates profits are being taken... Glassnode claims "longer-term holders are beginning to spend currencies"

The 90-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of Bitcoin Supply in Profit's 30-day uptrend or downtrend is indicated by Glassnode's last indication in its dashboard for recovering from a bitcoin bear.

The quantity of Bitcoins that have recently moved indicates that they were likely purchased at a lower price and are being held in the wallet as a paper profit when values in USD were lower than they are now.

Also, this indication is glowing green.